New forces in the world of property

I firmly believe the story of the early part of the 21st century will be the shift of power, in real estate terms at least, from the established western nations of Europe and North America to emerging countries from other continents. Even in the recession you can see that theory remains valid with the continued growth of China and the promise of Brazil, India and parts of the Middle East. Now, with the opening of Burj Dubai on January 4, there is a potent symbol of how ambitious these 'new forces' are in the world of property.

Standing at over 818 metres the tower is the world's tallest building but its significance is more than mere height. That building work continued at all, at a time when rival towers were scaled back or foundered in the recession, is a forceful indicator of the emerging markets' determination.

Of course within Dubai, the project is more than merely a tower, spanning as it does some 500 acres and including two retail malls, five hotels, offices and residential units. But around the rest of the world, it is a sign of undiminished ambition.

Contrast it with what is happening in Chicago. True, this handsome US city is in the throes of a reshaping of its skyline but the scheme has been derailed by the downturn. The Chicago Spire – despite the razzamatazz of Santiago Calatrava's design, much publicity and even plenty of advance sales of its apartments – has nothing to show for a decade of planning except for some empty foundations. Rumour has it, the tower may now never be built. Meanwhile, the recently completed Trump Tower just a few blocks away looks splendid but is a much-reduced version of what was originally planned for the site in 2000 but then scaled sharply downwards after the 9/11 attacks.

Of the other new super-tall towers being planned around the world, relatively few are in 'established' property markets.

For example, the Pagcor Tower, standing 665 metres tall, will be in Manila Bay in the Philippines; its groundbreaking was held in 2009 and work will take some years, but it is already being mooted as a potent symbol for Asia's growing economy.

The Lotte Super Tower 123, likely to be 555 metres tall, will be a mixed use scheme like Burj Dubai and will open in 2014 in Seoul, South Korea.

Work is well underway on the Shanghai Tower, expected to top out at 632 metres and featuring nine indoor gardens by the time it is scheduled for completion in China's second city in 2014.

The Port Tower is under consideration in the Pakistan financial hub of Karachi and will be 593 metres high according to early plans. There are plenty more towers at least at design stage in emerging markets, while of course the western world has ambitious plans too.

World Trade Center is finally under construction in New York and of course will have immense symbolic importance for the entire world when it is finished. London's Shard of Glass tower, a remarkable design, will be completed for that city's

Olympic Games in 2012, by which time the new tower will be the tallest in the European Union at 310 metres. And in Paris there will be the slightly more modest French Tour Generali, hitting 308 metres.

So the West has not stopped being creative. But the broader point, worth remembering at the start of a new decade, is that just a few decades ago any such ambitious design boasting a record-breaking tall tower would have been found only in the West. Now these daring projects are at least as common in emerging markets, and indeed may be more likely to be initiated there than in a recessionary West that is increasingly frightened of its financial fragility.

So the significance of the Burj Dubai's launch is not just to show that the emirate has good news to tell after the traumas of 2009, but that the whole region is still a 'coming force'. The Burj launch also coincides with the UAE rising from 31st to 18th place in the 2010 Real Estate Global Opportunity Index from AT Kearney, a consultancy that focuses on emerging markets and advises property developers on where to expand outside familiar regions.

These symbols show why it is right to be optimistic, even in difficult times. We are, after all, only a tenth of the way through the 21st century – and time is on the side of the emerging nations. - Graham Norwood on Thursday, December 31, 2009 (Emirates Business)

- Graham Norwood is a property correspondent for The Observer